An internal survey of Citizens, carried out between March 2 and 9 (before the break-up of the coalition government in Madrid), gives the victory to the PP, but not the absolute majority to form a Government, so it would once again depend on other formations such as Vox and Ciudadanos.
The sample consists of 800 interviews by telephone or by computer, and takes into account the current distribution of the Chamber, composed of 132 seats, which in a new Legislature will increase to 136 due to the increase in population in the region.
The survey, to which Efe has had access, grants 16 seats to the orange formation (10 less than the last elections of 2019), but, in any case, Ciudadanos would be ahead of Vox, with 15 seats compared to 12 in the previous elections.
The PP, with 39 seats compared to 30 in 2019, would win the elections this time, but to form a government, it would need the support of the party of former vice president Ignacio Aguado, and also of Vox, and thus they would add 70 seats (currently the absolute majority stands at 67).
Regarding the parties of the left, the PSOE would keep its 37 seats; More Madrid would get 18, compared to 20 in 2019, and Unidos Podemos would also keep its seven seats, the same number as in 2019.
Thus, if they want to form a government, these three parties would also need the seats of a fourth group to run for the regional executive.
The survey was carried out a few days before the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, called early elections for May 4 and, later, dismissed the members of Ciudadanos with whom she shared the Executive coalition, among them, Aguado, leader regional training.
Ayuso has declared to the media that she would like to obtain an absolute majority: “I aspire to govern alone and then understand myself with others,” she commented.
The call for elections is nevertheless in the air since the Madrid Assembly Table will present an appeal against the decree of the president, having admitted after his signing motions of no-confidence from PSOE and Más Madrid.